Hormuz: why Qatar LNG is the first casualty

This note assesses the implications of a disruption at the Strait of Hormuz for global LNG markets. The suspension of Qatar’s LNG production and the closure of the Strait could remove around 20% of global LNG supply, creating a major shock for international gas markets. The crisis highlights the strategic vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global energy trade. Even if tanker convoys are introduced, escorted transit would significantly constrain shipping capacity and force difficult cargo prioritisation. Under such conditions, crude oil shipments would likely take precedence over LNG, limiting LNG flows and intensifying competition for available cargoes, particularly between Europe and Asia.